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BULAWAYO, May 8, 2008 (thezimbabwetimes.com) - A leading political analyst has slammed MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai as risk-averse, saying his decision to go into self-imposed exile at a crucial time was one of the worst blunders his party had ever made.

 

Addressing journalists at a workshop on post-election reporting here Wednesday, head of the University of Zimbabwe political science division, Professor Eldred Masunungure, said the MDC desperately required risk-taking leadership “not cowards who fled from intimidation”.

 

Masunungure, who also heads the Mass Public Opinion Institute, a research think-tank that accurately predicted victory for Tsvangirai in an opinion poll published during the run-up to the controversial March 29 poll, said Tsvangirai's decision to go into exile would be used by Zanu-PF as cannon fodder to justify oft-repeated claims by Robert Mugabe that the MDC leader was a coward who fled from the liberation struggle.

 

“The post-March 29 self-imposed exile by their political leadership has been one of the worst blunders the MDC has ever made,” Masunungure said. “The leadership has been the first to flee intimidation. You have a shepherd leaving his flock. It’s politically imprudent. It forces one to ask. ‘If gold rusts, what will silver do?’ Its ill-advised.”

 

Masunungure said it was also ill-advised for Tsvangirai to seek sanctuary in Johannesburg or any part of the continent because he would still be easy prey if there were plans to assassinate him. “You can’t hide from a determined regime or assassin,” Masunugure said.

 

He said the decision by the MDC leadership to flee Zanu-PF violence reaffirmed the view that Zanu-PF and its leader were a risk-taking leadership while the MDC was risk-averse.

 

Tsvangirai has said he would only return to Zimbabwe after verification of results from the March 29 election, in which he says he beat Mugabe.

 

The MDC leader has spent weeks outside Zimbabwe. He says he is mounting a diplomatic offensive to force the announcement of the correct results and to also step up pressure on his rival to concede defeat and hand over power. It remains unclear if the verification process, which the electoral commission refused to undertake before announcing the results, will take place.

 

“I am sure that the verification exercise will not be difficult because we will all have to compare the figures and ultimately come out with the outcome that everyone can agree to,” Tsvangirai said in an interview broadcast on French news channel France 24 on May 1.

 

“Once that is done, then we know who has won the election and then I will make the necessary steps to go back.”

 

But Masunungure said: "They want to lead but fear risk. I want to suggest that the import of this is that the presidential price is likely to go to risk-takers. The MDC’s risk orientation is important at this point. Their being away at this critical juncture is an indication of risk fearing. Politics is not easy. It’s not kindergarten.”

 

Masunungure said the only way forward at this juncture would be a government of national unity.

 

He presented three post-election scenarios. The first one was that the incumbent, Mugabe, wins the run off election by default after Tsvangirai pulls out.

 

“In this scenario, nothing really much will change. The fact of the matter is that the Mugabe regime has become the minority regime.”

 

He said the second scenario was that Tsvangirai would win the run off. In this case, since Tsvangirai has a simple majority in Parliament, he would face difficulties in ruling.

 

“The third major scenario is political accommodation,” Masunungure said. “The most talked about option is the government of national unity (GNU). Some people dismiss it outright.

 

“But we should pose and think through this option. It is not only desirable; it is inevitable. If any of the candidates wins even a ‘thunderous victory’, none of the two can go it alone. The configuration of parliamentary representation dictates political accommodation.

 

“The outcome (of the March 29 poll) teaches us that the voters rejected the winner take all, or loser lose all.”

 

Masunungure did not elaborate on how the electorate had rejected the “winner takes all” concept of elections.

 

“Should one want to go it alone, the President will face a governability problem. I still think it will be difficult to put in place a functional government.

 

“Let me quickly add that this GNU thing is a political formula and cannot be a permanent solution. It should not last the life of Parliament. Under the present circumstances it has to be short lived. It should be a transitional arrangement. The longevity has to be subject to negotiation.”