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New strategies can bring Zanu-PF regime to its knees By Farai Mtshaka April 25, 2008 FIRST, I would like to congratulate the MDC for a resounding victory in the recent elections, in spite of the shameless tactics by Zanu-PF to reverse the will of the people. I am well aware that the victory comes at great sacrifice by both the leadership and supporters of the movement. Having been disenfranchised by the evil regime of Robert Mugabe for living outside Zimbabwe, I was not able to vote for the party of my choice during the elections. I would also like to congratulate the party for the excellent public relations campaign that has kept the refusal by the Harare regime to announce the results of the presidential elections at center stage. The extensive coverage by all major news organizations has continued to rally international opinion and support against Mugabe and his minions in Harare . As a supporter of the MDC and strong believer in its values, I would like to offer some strategic advice on the way forward. First and foremost, I am of the view that the MDC needs to speak with one voice on matters of strategic importance such as the so-called recount and possible run-off/re-run of the presidential election. Unfortunately, the MDC has in recent days issued conflicting positions on these two important issues. On the one hand, Hebson Makuvise (MDC Rep in London) has announced on BBC that the MDC would participate in an run-off presidential election, provided the conditions for a free and fair poll exist in the country, while on the other hand, Tendai Biti has stated that the MDC will not take part as this is not necessary, granted that Morgan Tsvangirai won the necessary votes in the first round to avoid such an eventuality. The same applies to the recount; it is not clear whether the MDC will accept the results of this dubious exercise whose sole purpose is to change the electoral outcome in favour of Zanu-PF. There is need for an unequivocal statement stating the official position of the MDC. In the first instance, it would be very helpful if there is a single spokes-man for the MDC. I was surprised to see Simba Makoni in Lusaka at the recent SADC emergency summit. Granted that Mavambo Project met its demise on March 29, 2008, any attempt to co-opt its leadership into any future negotiations as part of a broader solution to the current political impasse should be rejected outright as a time-wasting irrelevance. To put it bluntly, Simba Makoni no longer has the requisite political capital to leverage his political ambitions. On the other hand, however, I was impressed by the position taken by Mutambara in a recent article published in the Zimbabwe Times and The Standard. I believe strongly that it is very important for the two formations of the MDC to find common ground on which to fight the common enemy which is Zanu-PF. I strongly recommend that the Movement (MDC - T) extends the olive branch to Mutambara and his formation. We should bear in mind that Zanu-PF is also busy trying to coax Mutambara to join them in the mistaken belief that his support would generate the “tsunami effect” needed to win over a reluctant electorate. To his credit, Mutambara has made it clear that he does not intend to embrace the evil party. The euphoria of recent electoral victories in the House of Assembly and the yet to be announced presidential election results should not obscure the fear, terror and outright brutality being endured by daily Zimbabweans up and down the country, over and above the debilitating hardships of a collapsing economy. We are all aware that the terror campaign of political retribution code named “Operation Mavotera Papi” (Who did you vote for) is aimed at regaining control of Parliament and pave the way for an easy win in a run-off Presidential election. Undoubtedly, the strategy is to bludgeon Zimbabweans into submission, especially the rural folk. Once the opposition has been neutralized, Zanu-PF mistakenly believes that it will be in a position to dictate the terms and conditions of a political settlement to be offered to the opposition. Caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, let us examine in some detail the alternatives available to the MDC. First, the MDC could reject outright to participate in both the recount and the run-off presidential election, having decided that these are shameful shenanigans orchestrated by Zanu-PF for the sole purpose of retaining power by stealth. Zanu-PF knows that a disputed election will strengthen the resolve of the international community to intervene in Zimbabwe. Naturally, the evil regime of Robert Mugabe does not fancy this prospect. The recent intervention by the International Transport Workers Federation to stop a shipment of weapons from China into Zimbabwe opens up a new front in the struggle against the dictatorial regime of Robert Mugabe. Suddenly, the prospect of an international blockade prompted by comprehensive sanctions against the evil regime has become real. Zanu-PF strategists know that this is the beginning of the end-game. Former close allies within SADC such as Angola and Mozambique are beginning to reconsider the cost of continuing to support the rogue regime. That said, we can expect Baba VaChatunga (Mugabe) and his cronies to go for the broke by ratcheting up the brinkmanship and the usual intransigence. They know and understand that the stakes are high. Under these circumstances, therefore, the so-called recount will no doubt produce a result that fits the nefarious objectives of the evil party. Furthermore, participating in such a duplicitous scheme, replete with all manner of systemic challenges will guarantee an illegitimate outcome. Once the run-off is over with, Zanu-PF will claim the crown and quickly invite the MDC into negotiations of a government of national unity (of sorts) in which the MDC will be treated with utter contempt as a mere junior partner. That much is clear. Under normal circumstances, the combined electoral appeal of the reunited MDC formations is sufficient to defeat Zanu-PF but unfortunately, the conditions for a free and fair run-off presidential election do not exist, and will never exist in Zimbabwe as long as Baba VaChatunga and his minions are still in power. Let us be clear about this. Zanu-PF will ensure that the conditions for a run-off poll favour an outright victory for Robert Mugabe, whether by brute force, rigging or any other crooked means. Make no mistake about it, the conditions for a run-off presidential election will never resemble those of the combined elections which took place on March 29. Zanu- PF will not make the same mistake twice! The question then becomes, what is the way forward for the MDC at this momentous occasion in the country's history? In my view, the MDC should begin to think “outside the box” so to speak. There is need for a new direction, a decisive paradigm shift in strategy and execution. The sanctity and integrity of any future election under the evil regime of Robert Mugabe have been irrevocably compromised by the ongoing campaign of retribution being waged against innocent civilians, mostly MDC supporters. It is now virtually impossible for the MDC to win a run-off presidential election against Zanu-PF. Therefore, the MDC should not accept the outcome of the ongoing recount. As a matter of political principle and conviction, it should never contemplate participating in a run-off presidential election whose outcome will be fixed before-hand. The reunited MDC should set their differences aside and agree to co-operate for the good for of the country. The two formations should proceed to set up a shadow government in exile with Morgan Tsvangirai as the President. Within Zimbabwe, members of the Parliament from the reunited MDC should launch a campaign of civil disobedience by refusing to attend parliamentary sessions until there is an amicable political settlement in the country. Meanwhile, the exiles should continue to lobby the international community through the Security Council, the AU, SADC and the European Parliament to intervene in Zimbabwe and accept the outcome of the March 29 election results as the basis for forming the next government. They (the exiles) should advocate for comprehensive sanctions against the evil regime, reminiscent of those imposed by the international community against Rhodesia following the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) in 1965. Concurrently, the MDC should begin to prepare a comprehensive economic recovery programme for a new Zimbabwe. The MDC should not overlook the critical role played by the “Diaspora Dollar” in sustaining the evil regime in Harare . A robust campaign aimed at cutting off this lifeline will have an immediate and devastating impact on the evil regime. Recent estimates of remittances flowing into Zimbabwe put the figure at anywhere between 350 and 500 million US dollars per month. Having failed to attract the funds through the so-called Homelink scheme, the evil regime has shamelessly resorted to buying the Diaspora dollar from the black market for survival, further putting pressure on the weakened Zimbabwe dollar. In order to cut-off this important lifeline, Zimbabweans in the Diaspora should be encouraged to set up businesses in South Africa and Botswana that will supply relatives of the Diaspora community in Zimbabwe. Remittances would be sent directly to those businesses which serve families linked to the Diaspora community. The sanctions campaign should also target all children of Zanu-PF “chefs” (political heavyweights) studying abroad. Australia has already set a trail-blazing precedent in this regard. Similarly, the USA, Canada and the EU should be persuaded to do the same. In addition, the MDC should encourage and support regular protests at key Zimbabwean Embassies in Washington DC, London and South Africa, and at major international functions. In the meantime, the MDC should make it clear that all those who continue to violate human rights with impunity will be thoroughly investigated and brought to book without fear or favour. To conclude, it is clear to me that short of taking up arms of war to wage an all-out struggle against the evil regime, the MDC should be prepared to take up measures that will effectively cripple and render impotent the evil regime of Robert Mugabe by peaceful means. Make no mistake about it, Zanu-PF will not relinquish power willingly. The evil regime needs to be brought to its knees first. Zimbabwean people have suffered long enough. A few more months of economic hardships will not make much of a difference. Perhaps, this is the price we have to pay for regaining our freedom. We should stop thinking that we can outsource our liberation to others. It is time to bid farewell to Thabo Mbeki and his merry men. Aluta continua!